7

Money Man

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 7 · OR 82

Keeneland · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼2
Strength85%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Ellis Park 22/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 92 · 1m 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/08/2025 · OR 92 par22/08C6OR 92C6 @ Churchill Downs 26/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 91 · 1m110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/09/2025 · OR 91 parC6 @ Keeneland 22/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 93 · 1m Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/10/2025 · OR 93 par22/10C6OR 93C6 @ Churchill Downs 20/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 93 · 1m110y Slo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 93 parC6 @ Turfway Park 22/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 90 · 1m 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/01/2026 · OR 90 par22/01C6OR 90C6 @ Keeneland 19/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 86 · 1m110y 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 86 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 30/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 87 · 1m1f Fas 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 87 par30/05C6OR 87C6 @ Churchill Downs 27/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 85 · 1m110y Slo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 85 parC9 @ Churchill Downs 17/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 84 · 1m110y Fas 124 · below its mark17/09/2026 · OR 84 par17/09C9OR 84projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Churchill Downs?4th4th0
2026-06-27Churchill Downs?6th3rd+3
2026-05-30Churchill Downs?3rd0th+3
2026-04-19Keeneland?3rd0th+3
2026-01-22Turfway Park?8th5th+3
2025-11-20Churchill Downs?5th2nd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0820/1130/0517/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 64/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength92%

Delivery trend -4.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/08/20253rd20/10%80%+0.80
26/09/20253rd20/10%82%+0.82
22/10/20257th20/10%45%+0.45
20/11/20255th10/147%33%-0.14
22/01/20268th12/137%22%-0.15
19/04/20263rd16/116%71%+0.56
30/05/20263rd25/10%71%+0.71
27/06/20266th25/10%44%+0.44
17/09/20264th15/261%67%+0.06