Join
3yo Colt · 8-6 · Draw 4 · OR 80
Keeneland · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-06-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 15/02/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 45% | -0.02 |
| 22/04/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 63% | -0.26 |
| 06/07/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |