Kokomo Joe

3yo Colt · 8-6 · Draw 7 · OR 87

Keeneland · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f 110y

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

99%

Place Prob

82%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼2

Strength61%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.9

Today:

Class gap: +1.6

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-06	Ellis Park	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2026-05-23	Churchill Downs	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-04-23	Keeneland	?	1st	-1th	+2	5.0
2026-03-05	Turfway Park	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 82/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +26.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
05/03/2026	3rd	5/2	87%	60%	-0.27
23/04/2026	1st	8/15	97%	100%	+0.03
23/05/2026	5th	20/1	0%	33%	+0.33
06/07/2026	5th	40/1	0%	50%	+0.50