Mom's Spaghetti
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · Draw 1 · OR 91
Keeneland · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-03-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-03-07 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-01-16 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2025-12-11 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 36% | +0.10 |
| 07/11/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 30/11/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 11/12/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 16/01/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 07/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 23/08/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 07/09/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |