2
State Conceal
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · Draw 2 · OR 90
Keeneland · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼2
Strength61%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-08-14 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-07-11 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-26 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2026-05-29 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2025-11-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 45/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength60%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 03/09/2025 | 2nd | 4/9 | 98% | 83% | -0.14 |
| 03/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 09/11/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 29/05/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 04/09/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |