Stone County
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · Draw 5 · OR 84
Keeneland · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-10 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-03-15 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 10/04/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |