Terrapin Station
4yo Colt · 8-9 · Draw 8 · OR 91
Keeneland · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-02-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-01-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-11-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-11-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Keeneland | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.7% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09/2024 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 26/10/2024 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 09/10/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 08/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 30/11/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 17/01/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 07/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 28/03/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |