3
Hickory
2yo Colt · 8-7 · Draw 3 · OR 82
Keeneland · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
59%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1564% of fieldRange 13-13 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength14%
Delivery trend -15.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 23/08/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 64% | -0.18 |