12
Jokes Reserve
2yo Colt · 8-7 · Draw 12 · OR 71
Keeneland · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 15100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +97.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 05/09/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |