2
Just A Holiday
2yo Colt · 8-7 · Draw 2 · OR 71
Keeneland · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-07-09 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1586% of fieldRange 1-15 · tight 20/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength74%
Delivery trend +20.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/2026 | 8th | 5/2 | 87% | 13% | -0.74 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 29/08/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |