1
Golden Ale
7yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 1 · OR 107
Keeneland · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-15 | Santa Anita | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-03-18 | Turf Paradise | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-12 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 1-13 · tight 25/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength39%
Delivery trend -3.5% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/2025 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 16/08/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 07/09/2025 | 11th | 11/4 | 86% | 9% | -0.76 |
| 12/10/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 56% | -0.31 |
| 18/03/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 15/06/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 18% | -0.34 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 14/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |