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11

Guy Smiley

4yo Gelding · 8-11 · Draw 11 · OR 95

Keeneland · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y

#7

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 1.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Turfway Park 17/01/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 6f110y Fas 12017/01C9C6 @ Turfway Park 16/02/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 104 · 1m Fas 120 · below its mark16/02/2025 · OR 104 par16/02C6OR 104C6 @ Churchill Downs 08/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 98 · 5f Fm 118 · beat its mark08/05/2025 · OR 98 par8/05C6OR 98C5 @ Kentucky Downs 07/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 96 · 6f110y 121 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 96 par7/09C5OR 96projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Kentucky Downs?1st1st0
2025-05-08Churchill Downs?1st2nd−1
2025-02-16Turfway Park?3rd4th−1
2025-01-17Turfway Park?2nd6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0116/028/057/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 82/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +11.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/01/20252nd2/189%90%+0.01
16/02/20253rd9/488%80%-0.08
08/05/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
07/09/20261st11/271%100%+0.29