7
Kalahari Dreams
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 7 · OR 99
Keeneland · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-12-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 8-12 · tight 75/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength24%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 9th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 14/09/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 08/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 19/12/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 17/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 27/06/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 36% | -0.11 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 10/09/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |