5
Moon Sniper
4yo Colt · 8-9 · Draw 5 · OR 101
Keeneland · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-10 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-07-26 | Ellis Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-05-16 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-04-17 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 50/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength75%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2024 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 06/10/2024 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 14/03/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |
| 17/04/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 16/05/2025 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 26/07/2025 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 27% | +0.01 |
| 10/09/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 17/04/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 17% | -0.46 |