4
Mountain Bear
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 4 · OR 103
Keeneland · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-04-09 | Keeneland | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-10-08 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 0th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 3-13 · tight 43/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength20%
Delivery trend -8.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2024 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 05/10/2024 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 25/05/2025 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 90% | -0.06 |
| 05/07/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 31/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 82% | -0.06 |
| 08/10/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 56% | -0.29 |
| 09/04/2026 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 25/07/2026 | 7th | 6/5 | 94% | 14% | -0.79 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 90% | +0.53 |