3
Murdock
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 3 · OR 101
Keeneland · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-08 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 10-13 · tight 78/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06/2024 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 22/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 17/04/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 28/05/2026 | 5th | 6/5 | 94% | 33% | -0.60 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 1/3 | 98% | 75% | -0.23 |
| 06/09/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |