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9

Ortley Avenue

4yo Colt · 8-11 · Draw 9 · OR 97

Keeneland · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

96%

Place Prob

69%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▼1
Strength65%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.6
Today:
Class gap: +1.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 06/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 1186/04C6C5 @ Gulfstream 17/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 106 · 5f Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/05/2025 · OR 106 par17/05C5OR 106C1 @ Saratoga 13/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 98 · 5f110y Yie 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/07/2025 · OR 98 par13/07C1OR 98C1 @ Saratoga 10/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 101 · 5f110y Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark10/08/2025 · OR 101 par10/08C1OR 101C5 @ Saratoga 09/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 87 · 5f110y Fm 126 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 87 par9/08C5OR 87C5 @ Saratoga 05/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 92 · 5f110y Fm 126 · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 92 par5/09C5OR 92projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Saratoga?1st1st0
2026-08-09Saratoga?2nd2nd0
2025-08-10Saratoga?7th2nd+4
2025-07-13Saratoga?2nd-3th+4
2025-05-17Gulfstream?2nd1st+1
2025-04-06Gulfstream?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0417/0513/0710/089/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 80/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/04/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
17/05/20252nd2/189%80%-0.09
13/07/20252nd14/126%80%+0.54
10/08/20257th20/10%14%+0.14
09/08/20262nd10/147%89%+0.42
05/09/20261st7/282%100%+0.18