13
Our Starry Night
4yo Colt · 8-9 · Draw 13 · OR 99
Keeneland · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 12th | 13th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 6-13 · tight 61/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength7%
Delivery trend -9.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 30/08/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.16 |
| 16/10/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 14/11/2025 | 12th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 03/04/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 28/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 09/08/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 44% | -0.42 |
| 14/09/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |