Twilight Delight
3yo Colt · 8-8 · Draw 12 · OR 100
Keeneland · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -14.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2025 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 31/08/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 05/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 82% | -0.01 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 56% | -0.34 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |