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2

Zambezi

6yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 2 · OR 105

Keeneland · Race 5 - Allowance · 5f 110y

#12

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Oaklawn Park 25/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 112 · 6f Fas 117 · below its mark25/04/2025 · OR 112 par25/04C6OR 112C8 @ Churchill Downs 26/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 102 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark26/05/2025 · OR 102 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 28/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 110 · 7f110y Fas 118 · below its mark28/06/2025 · OR 110 par28/06C8OR 110C6 @ Ellis Park 02/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 107 · 6f 122 · below its mark02/08/2025 · OR 107 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 18/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 108 · 7f110y 121 · below its mark18/09/2025 · OR 108 par18/09C8OR 108C8 @ Churchill Downs 21/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 106 · 1m 121 · beat its mark21/11/2025 · OR 106 parC6 @ Turfway Park 05/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 107 · 6f110y 123 · below its mark05/03/2026 · OR 107 par5/03C6OR 107C6 @ Oaklawn Park 02/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 110 · 1m 120 · below its mark02/05/2026 · OR 110 parC6 @ Ellis Park 19/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 109 · 1m Gd 122 · below its mark19/07/2026 · OR 109 par19/07C6OR 109projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-19Ellis Park?5th6th−1
2026-05-02Oaklawn Park?3rd4th−1
2026-03-05Turfway Park?3rd4th−1
2025-11-21Churchill Downs?1st4th−3
2025-09-18Churchill Downs?2nd5th−3
2025-08-02Ellis Park?8th9th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/042/085/0319/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 8-13 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength10%

Delivery trend -4.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 13th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/04/20256th14/126%29%+0.02
26/05/20252nd5/174%75%+0.01
28/06/20253rd14/126%75%+0.49
02/08/20258th15/261%22%-0.38
18/09/20252nd4/179%80%+0.01
21/11/20251st1/195%100%+0.05
05/03/20263rd5/287%67%-0.20
02/05/20263rd9/276%80%+0.04
19/07/20265th11/486%43%-0.43