7
Barksdale
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 7 · OR 95
Keeneland · Race 6 - Claiming · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
67%
Place Prob
40%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 2-6 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength58%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 28/08/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 18/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 01/03/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/04/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 21/05/2026 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 56% | -0.37 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 29% | -0.40 |
| 11/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |