Billal
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 2 · OR 102
Keeneland · Race 6 - Claiming · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-04-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-03-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-01-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-11-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2025-11-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2024 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 03/11/2024 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 26/01/2025 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 06/11/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 30/11/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 25/01/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 01/03/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 30/04/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 17/08/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |