Flying Liam
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 5 · OR 99
Keeneland · Race 6 - Claiming · 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-08-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-04-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-04-04 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | -5th | +7 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/11/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 19/12/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 25/01/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 04/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 24/04/2026 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 09/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |