High Ceiling
4yo Colt · 8-9 · Draw 4 · OR 95
Keeneland · Race 6 - Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-06-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-01-31 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-01-11 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2024-10-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2024 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 27/10/2024 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 73% | +0.20 |
| 11/01/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 31/01/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 18/07/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 14% | -0.54 |
| 30/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |