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6

Tarantino

8yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 6 · OR 96

Keeneland · Race 6 - Claiming · 7f

#7

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼2
Strength84%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Del Mar 31/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 101 · 1m2f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/08/2025 · OR 101 par31/08C?OR 101C1 @ Fair Grounds 17/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 98 · 1m110y Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/01/2026 · OR 98 parC6 @ Fair Grounds 19/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 86 · 1m110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/02/2026 · OR 86 par19/02C6OR 86C6 @ Fair Grounds 19/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 84 · 1m110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/03/2026 · OR 84 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 15/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 93 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 93 par15/05C6OR 93C7 @ Churchill Downs 17/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 105 · 7f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 105 parC6 @ Saratoga 04/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 100 · 1m Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 100 par4/07C6OR 100C6 @ Saratoga 26/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 100 · 6f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/07/2026 · OR 100 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 11/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 97 · 6f 121 · below its mark11/09/2026 · OR 97 par11/09C8OR 97projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Churchill Downs?3rd3rd0
2026-07-26Saratoga?6th4th+2
2026-07-04Saratoga?6th4th+2
2026-06-17Churchill Downs?1st0th+1
2026-05-15Churchill Downs?7th5th+2
2026-03-19Fair Grounds?2nd0th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0819/034/0711/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 72/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength66%

Delivery trend -2.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/08/20257th50/10%0%0.00
17/01/20268th25/10%0%0.00
19/02/20263rd4/179%67%-0.12
19/03/20262nd3/184%83%-0.01
15/05/20267th16/116%33%+0.18
17/06/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
04/07/20266th7/163%38%-0.26
26/07/20266th20/10%17%+0.17
11/09/20263rd5/696%50%-0.46