Timing Difference
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 3 · OR 97
Keeneland · Race 6 - Claiming · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-07-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-05-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 25/10/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 22/11/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 03/01/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 13/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |