Tom Cat Tuesday
4yo Colt · 8-9 · Draw 8 · OR 96
Keeneland · Race 6 - Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-06-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-03-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |
| 20/12/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 19/02/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 01/03/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 11/09/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |