2
Bob's Carrot
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 2 · OR 103
Keeneland · Race 7 - Allowance · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-05-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-02-05 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-12-21 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 58/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength76%
Delivery trend +6.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 09/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 22/11/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |
| 21/12/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 05/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 19/03/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 16/09/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |