7
Lincoln's Law
3yo Colt · 8-6 · Draw 7 · OR 105
Keeneland · Race 7 - Allowance · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
16%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-03-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 49/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength70%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 27/03/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 12/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |