6
Mount Vernon
3yo Colt · 8-6 · Draw 6 · OR 83
Keeneland · Race 7 - Allowance · 7f
#12
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Saratoga | BHA93 | 7th | 12th | −4 |
| 2026-07-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Fair Grounds | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-02-17 | Fair Grounds | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 1-11 · tight 33/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength59%
Delivery trend +24.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/02/2026 | 6th | 15/8 | 90% | 38% | -0.53 |
| 21/03/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 13% | -0.61 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 02/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |