11
Tre Italiani
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 11 · OR 101
Keeneland · Race 7 - Allowance · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 4-10 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength42%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2025 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 91% | -0.05 |
| 30/11/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 90% | +0.22 |
| 21/12/2025 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 78% | -0.14 |
| 22/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 01/03/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |
| 19/04/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 67% | -0.15 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |