Adonius

2yo Gelding · 8-6 · Draw 1 · OR 101

Keeneland · Race 8 - Indian Summer S. Presented By Keeneland Select - Grade 3 · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

91%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▲1

Strength14%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 1.4)

Highest class: 1

Recent avg: C1.9

Today:

Class gap: -1.3

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-22	York	1	2nd	2nd	−0	7.8
2026-07-29	Goodwood	1	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-05-06	Chester	2	1st	3rd	−1	7.3
2026-04-12	Musselburgh	2	1st	3rd	−1	7.3
2026-04-04	Musselburgh	4	1st	5th	−3	4.9

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 3-8 · tight 56/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength44%

Delivery trend -11.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
04/04/2026	1st	12/1	37%	100%	+0.63
12/04/2026	1st	1/1	95%	100%	+0.05
06/05/2026	1st	10/3	82%	100%	+0.18
29/07/2026	2nd	5/1	74%	90%	+0.16
22/08/2026	2nd	2/1	89%	90%	+0.01