Cactus Closer

2yo Colt · 8-6 · Draw 3 · OR 66

Keeneland · Race 8 - Indian Summer S. Presented By Keeneland Select - Grade 3 · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▲5

Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 10.5 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: -5.4

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-30	Saratoga	?	1st	8th	−5	2.5
2026-07-25	Saratoga	?	7th	14th	−5	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100

▬ OVER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +75.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
25/07/2026	7th	14/1	26%	14%	-0.12
30/08/2026	1st	12/1	37%	100%	+0.63