6
Ciarlatano
2yo Filly · 8-7 · Draw 6 · OR 85
Keeneland · Race 8 - Indian Summer S. Presented By Keeneland Select - Grade 3 · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲6
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 10.6 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -5.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 8th | −6 |
| 2026-07-25 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 13th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 5-5 · tight 71/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength44%
Delivery trend +35.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 55% | -0.27 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |