4
Crack On
2yo Filly · 8-3 · Draw 4 · OR 95
Keeneland · Race 8 - Indian Summer S. Presented By Keeneland Select - Grade 3 · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -4.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 8th | −5 |
| 2026-06-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 10th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 73/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +9.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |