2
Fanshell Beach
2yo Filly · 8-5 · Draw 2 · OR 104
Keeneland · Race 8 - Indian Summer S. Presented By Keeneland Select - Grade 3 · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲3
Strength15%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.6
Today:
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Royal Ascot | 1 | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 8th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 68/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength89%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 20/06/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |