2
Counting Stars
3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 2 · OR 99
Keeneland · Race 9 - Juddmonte Spinster Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 1f
#5
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 57/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▬
Strength84%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 27/12/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 06/02/2026 | 8th | 10/11 | 95% | 0% | -0.95 |
| 01/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 88% | +0.40 |
| 27/03/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 02/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 05/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 1/3 | 98% | 60% | -0.38 |