3
Immersive
4yo Filly · 8-13 · Draw 3 · OR 99
Keeneland · Race 9 - Juddmonte Spinster Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 1f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
97%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 2-4 · tight 70/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength59%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/2024 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 01/11/2024 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 14/06/2025 | 2nd | 8/15 | 97% | 67% | -0.31 |
| 19/07/2025 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 67% | -0.30 |
| 20/09/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 04/04/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 27/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 12/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |