1
Regaled
5yo Mare · 8-13 · Draw 1 · OR 102
Keeneland · Race 9 - Juddmonte Spinster Stakes - Grade 1 · 1m 1f
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-06-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-07 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 57/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength68%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 28/09/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 01/11/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 27/11/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |
| 07/03/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 11/04/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 05/06/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 27/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 03/10/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |