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Fine Thing

5yo Mare · 11-5 · OR 117

Kelso · Welcome To Family Day Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 4f 189y

#1

Rank

Odds

8/11

Win Prob

88%

Place Prob

73%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won first 2 starts over hurdles, latest when getting the better of the odds-on favourite in match at Stratford. Down in trip and faced competition for the lead when fourth of 7 in novice hurdle at Newton Abbot last time. Goes back up in trip and has cheekpieces added by leading yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Market Rasen 19/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 2m125y Gd 14919/0654 @ Uttoxeter 15/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 2m3f207y Gd 15815/0744 @ Stratford 20/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 2 · OR - · 2m6f7y GF 15420/0844 @ Newton Abbot 18/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 120 · 2m167y Gd 166 · below its mark18/09/2026 · OR 120 par18/094OR 120projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 3
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Newton Abbot44th4th0
2026-08-20Stratford41st1st0
2026-07-15Uttoxeter41st1st0
2026-06-19Market Rasen53rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0615/0720/0818/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 3100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 47/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength75%

Delivery trend -3.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 3. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/06/20263rd7/491%60%-0.31
15/07/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
20/08/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
18/09/20264th6/492%50%-0.42