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6

Ballynoe Boy

6yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 102

Kelso · Percy's Racing Dream Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 189y

#2

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform
7lbs

Commentary

Has got his act together over hurdles of late, his Bangor success well advertised while he got the hat-trick up at Hexham over this trip on Friday despite errors returning. Big player again under a penalty.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength3%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Hexham 11/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 2m48y Gd 15611/1044 @ Kelso 25/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 2m51y Goo 1585 @ Doncaster 28/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 96 · 2m3f88y Goo 165 · below its mark28/11/2025 · OR 96 par28/115OR 965 @ Market Rasen 26/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 94 · 2m4f139y GS 162 · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 94 par5 @ Uttoxeter 13/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 93 · 2m3f207y Gd 165 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 93 par13/065OR 935 @ Cartmel 28/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 91 · 2m6f31y Goo 162 · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 91 par5 @ Market Rasen 15/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 89 · 2m2f140y Gd 153 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 89 par15/085OR 895 @ Bangor-on-Dee 04/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 94 · 2m3f123y Gd 162 · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 94 par4 @ Hexham 02/10/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 102 · 2m4f28y Goo 160 · beat its mark02/10/2026 · OR 102 par2/104OR 102projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-10-02Hexham41st1st0
2026-09-04Bangor-on-Dee51st2nd−1
2026-08-15Market Rasen51st2nd−1
2026-06-28Cartmel54th5th−1
2026-06-13Uttoxeter57th8th−1
2025-12-26Market Rasen53rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/1026/1215/082/10
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 76/100
▲ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength99%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/10/20256th33/10%29%+0.29
25/10/20258th50/10%46%+0.46
28/11/20254th8/158%73%+0.15
26/12/20253rd9/276%78%+0.01
13/06/20267th5/174%45%-0.28
28/06/20264th12/137%67%+0.30
15/08/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
04/09/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
02/10/20261st15/890%100%+0.10