Evaluation
8yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 115
Kelso · Percy's Racing Dream Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 189y
#7
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Haydock | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 2 | 13th | 11th | +2 |
| 2025-10-15 | Wetherby | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-08-16 | Perth | 2 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2025-05-15 | Perth | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-04-22 | Kelso | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/2024 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 30/11/2024 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 02/02/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 22/04/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 15/05/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 16/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 15/10/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 25% | -0.61 |
| 21/08/2026 | 13th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/09/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |