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5

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8yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 104

Kelso · Percy's Racing Dream Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 189y

#5

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Needed every yard of the trip to capitalise on a drop in grade in C&D hurdle in May. No show twice at Cartmel subsequently and was given a considerate return from 9-week break here last time. Excellent track record (3 wins and 5 places from 13 starts) and yard won previous 2 renewals of this race.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kelso 25/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 105 · 2m51y Goo 163 · below its mark25/10/2025 · OR 105 par25/104OR 1053 @ Kelso 08/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 105 · 2m4f189y Goo 151 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 105 par3 @ Kelso 07/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 112 · 2m51y Sft 142 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/12/2025 · OR 112 par7/123OR 1123 @ Musselburgh 01/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 111 · 2m3f171y Goo 152 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/01/2026 · OR 111 par2 @ Musselburgh 20/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 108 · 2m1f87y GS 155 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/03/2026 · OR 108 par20/032OR 1084 @ Kelso 20/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 106 · 2m6f151y Goo 160 · below its mark20/04/2026 · OR 106 par5 @ Kelso 24/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 104 · 2m4f189y Gd 168 · beat its mark24/05/2026 · OR 104 par24/055OR 1043 @ Cartmel 18/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 106 · 2m1f46y Gd 149 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 106 par3 @ Kelso 16/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 105 · 2m4f189y Goo 148 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/09/2026 · OR 105 par16/093OR 105projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Kelso35th4th+1
2026-07-18Cartmel39th8th+1
2026-06-28Cartmel40
2026-05-24Kelso51st2nd−1
2026-04-20Kelso47th7th0
2026-03-20Musselburgh29th7th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/101/0124/0516/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 5-10 · tight 64/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength11%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 10.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/10/20252nd5/493%90%-0.03
08/11/20251st5/174%100%+0.26
07/12/20256th17/255%0%-0.55
01/01/20264th28/10%63%+0.63
20/03/20269th12/137%38%+0.02
20/04/20267th17/255%40%-0.15
24/05/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
18/07/20269th33/10%20%+0.20
16/09/20265th10/147%0%-0.47