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9

Starlyte

9yo Mare · 10-7 · OR 96

Kelso · Percy's Racing Dream Handicap Hurdle · 2m 4f 189y

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Staying type whose latest success came in Go North Final over C&D (soft) in March 2025. Ran a typical race on first start for 4 months here last time, outpaced/plugged on (beaten 12¾ lengths), again shaping as though ready for a step back up in trip. Conditions probably quicker than ideal, too.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength67%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kelso 25/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 103 · 2m6f151y Goo 162 · below its mark25/10/2025 · OR 103 par25/104OR 1033 @ Kelso 08/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 101 · 2m4f189y Goo 147 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 101 par4 @ Newcastle 14/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 101 · 2m4f62y Goo 159 · below its mark14/11/2025 · OR 101 par14/114OR 1015 @ Newcastle 21/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 99 · 2m4f62y GS 167 · below its mark21/02/2026 · OR 99 par1 @ Kelso 21/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 96 · 3m100y GS 154 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 96 par21/031OR 964 @ Kelso 20/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 103 · 2m6f151y Goo 157 · below its mark20/04/2026 · OR 103 par4 @ Kelso 06/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 102 · 2m6f151y Gd 150 · below its mark06/05/2026 · OR 102 par6/054OR 1023 @ Cartmel 23/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 100 · 3m1f83y Gd 148 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 100 par3 @ Kelso 16/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 98 · 2m4f189y Goo 142 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/09/2026 · OR 98 par16/093OR 98projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Kelso34th3rd+1
2026-05-23Cartmel34th3rd+1
2026-05-06Kelso43rd3rd0
2026-04-20Kelso44th4th0
2026-03-21Kelso14th0th+3
2026-02-21Newcastle57th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/1021/026/0516/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 3-10 · tight 50/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength31%

Delivery trend -2.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/10/20254th11/271%57%-0.14
08/11/20256th9/153%62%+0.09
14/11/20257th10/147%25%-0.22
21/02/20267th22/10%57%+0.57
21/03/20264th200/10%63%+0.63
20/04/20264th13/266%70%+0.04
06/05/20263rd11/142%50%+0.08
23/05/20264th6/168%50%-0.18
16/09/20264th17/255%25%-0.30