Brosna Town
5yo Gelding · 11-2 · OR 104
Kelso · Justin & Susan Greig Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 51y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 6.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Market Rasen | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Galway | BHA80 | 11th | 16th | −4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | 1 | 5th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-07-05 | Market Rasen | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Newcastle | 2 | 16th | 14th | +2 |
| 2025-10-18 | Limerick | ? | 7th | 12th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 78% | +0.73 |
| 22/08/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 27/09/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 81% | -0.01 |
| 18/10/2025 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 27/06/2026 | 16th | 100/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 01/08/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 56% | -0.10 |