4
Luna Grace
4yo Filly · 10-8 · OR 96
Kelso · Justin & Susan Greig Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 51y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
82%
Place Prob
68%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Perth | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Kelso | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Musselburgh | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-27 | Newcastle | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Doncaster | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-14 | Market Rasen | 5 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 433% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 61/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▼
Strength66%
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 29/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 78% | +0.01 |
| 27/01/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 71% | -0.21 |
| 20/03/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 78% | +0.23 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |