3
Miss Arabella
8yo Mare · 10-9 · OR 88
Kelso · Justin & Susan Greig Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 51y
#4
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-05-10 | Sedgefield | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2024-02-18 | Musselburgh | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2023-11-28 | Southwell | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2023-11-08 | Musselburgh | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2023-09-20 | Kelso | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2023-02-25 | Newcastle | 5 | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 40% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 61/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength68%
Delivery trend +8.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 4. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/2022 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 20/09/2023 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 08/11/2023 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 28/11/2023 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 18/02/2024 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 10/05/2024 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 54% | +0.49 |