Tuppence
6yo Mare · 11-2 · OR 112
Kelso · Justin & Susan Greig Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 51y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/9
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Ayr | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Musselburgh | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Musselburgh | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-02-13 | Newcastle | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2024-12-29 | Kelso | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2024-12-08 | Kelso | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +7.5% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 4. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/12/2024 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 73% | +0.57 |
| 29/12/2024 | 11th | 13/2 | 66% | 23% | -0.43 |
| 13/02/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 15/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 20/03/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 17/04/2026 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |