5
Aeros Luck
7yo Gelding · 10-7 · OR 123
Kelso · NSPCC School Service Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 1f 14y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Perth | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Kelso | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-01 | Musselburgh | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-29 | Kelso | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-07 | Kelso | 2 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Kelso | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 2-5 · tight 64/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength47%
Delivery trend +3.9% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 71% | -0.11 |
| 03/08/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 44% | -0.08 |
| 21/08/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 07/12/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 29/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 01/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 28/02/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |