Breaking Cover
8yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 139
Kelso · NSPCC School Service Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 2m 1f 14y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
76%
Place Prob
59%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Stratford | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-27 | Newton Abbot | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Stratford | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Uttoxeter | 2 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Cheltenham | 1 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-08 | Wincanton | 1 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 29/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 29/10/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 08/11/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 15/11/2025 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 19/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |